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Some claim that the gambler's fallacy is a cognitive bias produced by a psychological heuristic called the representativeness heuristic. Six full packs of cards of the same pattern are used, shuffled together. The players seat themselves round the table. In the centre is a basket for the reception of the used cards. If there is any question as to the relative positions of the players, it is decided by lot. The person who draws the first place seats himself next on the right hand of the croupier, and the rest follow in succession. It might be pointed out that where economic activity is concentrated in transfers of wealth rather than its creation, gambler's ruin results in most of the wealth being held by a very small number of participants. We see this in the stock market when speculative activity is the norm rather than long-term dividend producing investment Insurance is statistically a bad bet for the player who has no direct knowledge nor estimation (e.g. through card counting) of the dealer's 'hole card' because Insurance has a negative expected value for the player. Even for the player who has been dealt a natural (a two-card 21) it is unwise to take Insurance. In such a case, the dealer usually asks the player "Even money?" This means that instead of 3:2, the player with the natural accepts to be paid off at 2:2. Thus it is exactly the same thing as buying Insurance, losing the Insurance bet and getting paid 3:2 on the natural. (If the player with the natural refuses "even money", and the dealer turns over a natural, it is a tie.) Mathematics of blackjack Keep track of how much you've wagered! Conversely, a player may win his original bet and lose his Insurance bet: History Mathematics of blackjack If the 'Player' has an initial total of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5, the 'Player' draws another card. Some of you may have heard about Cynthia Haines. Most of the online casinos know her name. Cynthia Haines is a woman from California who ran up $115,000 in credit card debts by gambling online. When it came time to pay up she refused. Caribbean Stud
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Key: I have written about the use of credit cards in the casino. I advise people to "Leave The Cards At Home". The cost of using a credit card to gamble with can be more than you think. It's too easy for some people to lose control when they start to gamble. When they are at the casino they have to physically walk to the cage and fill out the paper work to get the money. With online gambling they can enter in their card number and play away. I think this make it a little too easy for some people to lose control. I followed the cash-in procedure, credit card restrictions meant they paid my winning balance in the form of a cheque, which took just over a week to arrive. Consider a flipping coin game with two players where each player having 50% chance of winning each flip. After a flip the loser transfers one penny to the winner. The game ends when one player has all the pennies. If the number of flips is infinite, the probability that the game will eventually end is 100%. If player one has n1 pennies and player two n2 pennies , the chances P1 and P2 that players one and two, respectively, will end penniless are: Variants It follows that the player that starts with fewest pennies is most likely to fail. Even with equal odds, the longer one gambles, the greater the chance that the player starting out with the most pennies wins. However, this does not imply positive expected value for richer player since for each complete game (many flips) that the richer player loses, he will forfeit more pennies than his poorer playmate. You flip a fair coin 20 times and it comes up heads every time. What is the probability it will come up tails next time? (Answer: 0.5) A random event is more likely to occur because it recently happened; and
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